Launch Report

Equant Analytics is delighted to announce the launch of its inaugural report.

You can download the full report here.

Executive Summary:

  • We have found $2.1 trillion more trade in the world than official reported statistics suggest. This comes about from under-reporting which Equant Analytics corrects by the process of mirroring* trade data for over 200 countries and trading jurisdictions as well as 12,800 products and sectors.
  •  We developed the EADR (Equant Analytics Divergence Ratio) which measures the extent of the difference between officially published and mirrored data. It is a warning light indicating where a country’s trade data should be interrogated more closely for ‘hidden’ data or impacts from sanctions and tariffs.
  • An average of 11% of global trade over the past 15 years has been unaccounted for. This makes it invisible to the broader global economy, financiers and governments.
  • We found that Switzerland had the largest numerical discrepancy in 2014 with the top 10 countries making up $873bn of the $2.1 trillion difference. Switzerland’s mirrored trade divergence from its published trade has been particularly acute since 2013 and more specifically in 2014, with a significant increase in oil and gas trade between Russia and Switzerland.
  • China has the second largest divergence in its trade statistics by value at some $123.9bn in 2014, while Hong Kong has the third largest at $123.2 bn. Since 2003 China’s import trade has diverged progressively less in percentage terms compared to Hong Kong’s where the divergence has increased.
  • The key driver of the health of the global economy as we know is growth of total world trade. Achieving truly accurate and comprehensive data on this and so being able to look forward and assess future growth is a central goal for many key decision makers.
  • We aim to make global trade data more reliable. Unreliable global trade data weakens the quality of decision making by banks, investors and governments which may deter decisions to invest, finance or trade.

 

03/02/2016